FORECASTING

Along with the currents, wind and waves knowledge various natural signs and phenomena observed by fishers were used for prediction of weather and potential natural hazards. The following are key observations along with their interpretations. Clouds appearing in the western direction were consistently associated with the possibility of heavy rain. Rain clouds shaped like hills that remain unmoving despite wind and are also considered a sign of heavy rainfall. Fishers often recognize cyclones and typhoons by observing whirlwinds—rotating columns of air in a funnel shape. They refer to this phenomenon as “Kadalil Kaliranguka,” which means "the leg is touching the water. “The formation of unusual bubbles in the water is taken as a sign of disturbance on the ocean bed. Sometimes, the smell of Chelli (a type of seabed mud) is also considered an indicator of such disturbances. Seagulls and certain marine birds, such as Thavidan Aala (brown noddy), some terns, and Karivandu (a type of seabird), when sighted inland, are believed to signal approaching cyclones or storms.

These types of observations are proof that unlike formal meteorological forecasts and modern forecasting tools, traditional knowledge of weather prediction relies on environmental cues such as wind direction, cloud formations, wave behavior, the color and temperature of the sea, and even animal behavior. However, fishers now receive accurate weather information at sea — including wind patterns, wave heights, and precipitation — from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, and GPS-based navigation is becoming increasingly common. As a result, this body of traditional knowledge faces the risk of fading, along with the fishers’ ability to observe microecological and climatic changes in a holistic way.